vineri, 29 mai 2015

CRACKPOT'S IN ICE cracks in the ice near shore, the artist formely known as “flaw leads fresh prince ” become wider....Beaufort Sea polynyas open two weeks before 1975 – open water is good news for polar bears bad news for the waves that going to be cut down by the Zulu dawn ...

 the Cape Bathurst polynya. Last year, there wasn’t an obvious polynya there until sometime in June JUNE JUIN 2014....... but in THE LAST 40 YEARS IN 1975, AND NEVER AFTER a patch of open water almost as large (or larger) as this year’s had developed by the end of May BY THE 28TH OF MAY ONLY 14 DAYS AFTER THIS SINGULARITY ON ICE BY WALT DISNEY SACRED IS THY NAME (Fig. 1 MICKEY MOUSE VERSUS GOOFY).
Figure 1. Cape Bathurst polynya at 28 May 1975 (Smith and Rigby 1981: Fig. 14h), with the extent probably underestimated, and the polynya this year at 14 May (Canadian Ice Service). Click to enlarge.
Figure WE ARE NUMBER ONE ..........Cape Bathurst polynya at 28 May 1975 and the polynya this year at 14 May (Canadian Ice Service). Click to PUT IN MORE Large.






duminică, 17 mai 2015

THE BURNING TUNDRA IN APRIL ...Arctic sea ice extent for April 2015 averaged 14.0 million square kilometers (5.4 million square miles), the second lowest April ice extent in the satellite recordAir temperatures were higher than average over much of the Arctic Ocean. In the Antarctic, sea ice extent was the highest seen in April in the satellite record

April 2015 was marked by a fairly rapid decline during the first week of the month, little change during the middle of the month, and then a steep decline over the final week. Overall, extent decreased 862,000 square kilometers (333,000 square miles).
April was marked by higher than average 925 hPa air temperatures (1 to 3 degrees Celsius or 2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) throughout the Arctic, except for Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago where temperatures were 1 to 3 degrees Celsius (2 to 5 degrees Fahrenheit) below average. Temperatures were 6 to 8 degrees Celsius (11 to 14 degrees Fahrenheit) higher than average in the Kara Sea, linked to unusually low sea level pressure over the North Atlantic. Associated wind patterns also resulted in strong warming over the Eurasian Arctic.

luni, 4 mai 2015

CROOKED ANSWERS. "I answered him, as I thought good, 'As many as red-herrings grow in the wood'." __________ . No x are y'. 2. No x exist. 3. Some x exist. 4. All x are y'. 5. Some x are y. i.e. Some good riddles are hard. 6. All x are y. i.e. All good riddles are hard. 7. No x exist. i.e. No riddles are good. 8. No x are y. i.e. No good riddles are hard. 9. Some x are y'. i.e. Some lobsters are unselfish. 10. No x are y. i.e. No lobsters are selfish. 11. All x are y'. i.e. All lobsters are unselfish. 12. Some x are y, and some are y'. i.e. Some lobsters are selfish, and some are unselfish. 13. All y' are x'. i.e. All invalids are unhappy. 14. Some y' exist. i.e. Some people are unhealthy. 15. Some y' are x, and some are x'. i.e. Some invalids are happy, and some are unhappy. 16. No y' exist. i.e. Nobody is unhealthy. 1. Elementary. 1. Whatever can be "attributed to", that is "said to belong to", a Thing, is called an 'Attribute'. For example, "baked", which can (frequently) be attributed to "Buns", and "beautiful", which can (seldom) be attributed to "Babies". 2. When they are the Names of two Things (for example, "these Pigs are fat Animals"), or of two Attributes (for example, "pink is light red"). 3. When one is the Name of a Thing, and the other the Name of an Attribute (for example, "these Pigs are pink"), since a Thing cannot actually BE an Attribute. 4. That the Substantive shall be supposed to be repeated at the end of the sentence (for example, "these Pigs are pink (Pigs)"). 5. A 'Proposition' is a sentence stating that some, or none, or all, of the Things belonging to a certain class, called the 'Subject', are also Things belonging to a certain other class, called the 'Predicate'. For example, "some new Cakes are not nice", that is (written in full) "some new Cakes are not nice Cakes"; where the class "new Cakes" is the Subject, and the class "not-nice Cakes" is the Predicate. 6. A Proposition, stating that SOME of the Things belonging to its Subject are so-and-so, is called 'Particular'. For example, "some new Cakes are nice", "some new Cakes are not nice." A Proposition, stating that NONE of the Things belonging to its Subject, or that ALL of them, are so-and-so, is called 'Universal'. For example, "no new Cakes are nice", "all new Cakes are not nice". 7. The Things in each compartment possess TWO Attributes, whose symbols will be found written on two of the EDGES of that compartment. 8. "One or more." 9. As a name of the class of Things to which the whole Diagram is assigned. 10. A Proposition containing two statements. For example, "some new Cakes are nice and some are not-nice." 11. When the whole class, thus divided, is "exhausted" among the sets into which it is divided, there being no member of it which does not belong to some one of them. For example, the class "new Cakes" is "exhaustively" divided into "nice" and "not-nice" since EVERY new Cake must be one or the other. 12. When a man cannot make up his mind which of two parties he will join, he is said to be "sitting on the fence"--not being able to decide on which side he will jump down. 13. "Some x are y" and "no x are y'". 14. A Proposition, whose Subject is a single Thing, is called 'Individual'. For example, "I am happy", "John is not at home". These are Universal Propositions, being the same as "all the I's that exist are happy", "ALL the Johns, that I am now considering, are not at home". 15. Propositions beginning with "some" or "all". 16. When they begin with "some" or "no". For example, "some abc are def" may be re-arranged as "some bf are acde", each being equivalent to "some abcdef exist". 17. Some tigers are fierce, No tigers are not-fierce. 18. Some hard-boiled eggs are unwholesome, No hard-boiled eggs are wholesome. 19. Some I's are happy, No I's are unhappy. 20. Some Johns are not at home, No Johns are at home. 21. The Things, in each compartment of the larger Diagram, possess THREE Attributes, whose symbols will be found written at three of the CORNERS of the compartment (except in the case of m', which is not actually inserted in the Diagram, but is SUPPOSED to stand at each of its four outer corners). 22. If the Universe of Things be divided with regard to three different Attributes; and if two Propositions be given, containing two different couples of these Attributes; and if from these we can prove a third Proposition, containing the two Attributes that have not yet occurred together; the given Propositions are called 'the Premisses', the third one 'the Conclusion', and the whole set 'a Syllogism'. For example, the Premisses might be "no m are x'" and "all m' are y"; and it might be possible to prove from them a Conclusion containing x and y. 23. If an Attribute occurs in both Premisses, the Term containing it is called 'the Middle Term'. For example, if the Premisses are "some m are x" and "no m are y'", the class of "m-Things" is 'the Middle Term.' If an Attribute occurs in one Premiss, and its contradictory in the other, the Terms containing them may be called 'the Middle Terms'. For example, if the Premisses are "no m are x'" and "all m' are y", the two classes of "m-Things" and "m'-Things" may be called 'the Middle Terms'. 24. Because they can be marked with CERTAINTY: whereas AFFIRMATIVE Propositions (that is, those that begin with "some" or "all") sometimes require us to place a red counter 'sitting on a fence'. 25. Because the only question we are concerned with is whether the Conclusion FOLLOWS LOGICALLY from the Premisses, so that, if THEY were true, IT also would be true. 26. By understanding a red counter to mean "this compartment CAN be occupied", and a grey one to mean "this compartment CANNOT be occupied" or "this compartment MUST be empty". 27. 'Fallacious Premisses' and 'Fallacious Conclusion'. 28. By finding, when we try to transfer marks from the larger Diagram to the smaller, that there is 'no information' for any of its four compartments. 29. By finding the correct Conclusion, and then observing that the Conclusion, offered to us, is neither identical with it nor a part of it. 30. When the offered Conclusion is PART of the correct Conclusion. In this case, we may call it a 'Defective Conclusion'.

1. What is an 'Attribute'? Give examples.
2. When is it good sense to put "is" or "are" between two names? Give examples.
3. When is it NOT good sense? Give examples.
4. When it is NOT good sense, what is the simplest agreement to make, in order to make good sense?
5. Explain 'Proposition', 'Term', 'Subject', and 'Predicate'. Give examples.
6. What are 'Particular' and 'Universal' Propositions? Give examples.
7. Give a rule for knowing, when we look at the smaller Diagram, what Attributes belong to the things in each compartment.
8. What does "some" mean in Logic? [See pp. 55, 6]
9. In what sense do we use the word 'Universe' in this Game?
10. What is a 'Double' Proposition? Give examples.
11. When is a class of Things said to be 'exhaustively' divided? Give examples.
12. Explain the phrase "sitting on the fence."
13. What two partial Propositions make up, when taken together, "all x are y"?
14. What are 'Individual' Propositions? Give examples.
15. What kinds of Propositions imply, in this Game, the EXISTENCE of their Subjects?
16. When a Proposition contains more than two Attributes, these Attributes may in some cases be re-arranged, and shifted from one Term to the other. In what cases may this be done? Give examples.

Break up each of the following into two partial Propositions:
17. All tigers are fierce.
18. All hard-boiled eggs are unwholesome.
19. I am happy.
20. John is not at home.
[See pp. 56, 7]
21. Give a rule for knowing, when we look at the larger Diagram, what Attributes belong to the Things contained in each compartment.
22. Explain 'Premisses', 'Conclusion', and 'Syllogism'. Give examples.
23. Explain the phrases 'Middle Term' and 'Middle Terms'.
24. In marking a pair of Premisses on the larger Diagram, why is it best to mark NEGATIVE Propositions before AFFIRMATIVE ones?
25. Why is it of no consequence to us, as Logicians, whether the Premisses are true or false?
26. How can we work Syllogisms in which we are told that "some x are y" is to be understood to mean "the Attribute x, y are COMPATIBLE", and "no x are y" to mean "the Attributes x, y are INCOMPATIBLE"?
27. What are the two kinds of 'Fallacies'?
28. How may we detect 'Fallacious Premisses'?
29. How may we detect a 'Fallacious Conclusion'?
30. Sometimes the Conclusion, offered to us, is not identical with the correct Conclusion, and yet cannot be fairly called 'Fallacious'. When does this happen? And what name may we give to such a Conclusion?
[See pp. 57-59]

2. Half of Smaller Diagram.

Propositions to be represented.

                       |     |     |
                       |     x     |
                       |     |     |
1. Some x are not-y.
2. All x are not-y.
3. Some x are y, and some are not-y.
4. No x exist.
5. Some x exist.
6. No x are not-y.
7. Some x are not-y, and some x exist.
Taking x="judges"; y="just";
8. No judges are just.
9. Some judges are unjust.
10. All judges are just.
Taking x="plums"; y="wholesome";
11. Some plums are wholesome.
12. There are no wholesome plums.
13. Plums are some of them wholesome, and some not.
14. All plums are unwholesome.
[See pp. 59, 60]
                         |     |
                         |     x
                         |     |
                         |     |
                         |     x'
                         |     |
Taking y="diligent students"; x="successful";
15. No diligent students are unsuccessful.
16. All diligent students are successful.
17. No students are diligent.
18. There are some diligent, but unsuccessful, students.
19. Some students are diligent.
[See pp. 60, 1]

3. Half of Smaller Diagram.

Symbols to be interpreted.

                      |     |     |
                      |     x     |
                      |     |     |

                  -------            -------
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
             1.  |   | 0 |      2.  | 0 | 0 |
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
                  -------            -------

                  -------            -------
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
             3.  |   -   |      4.  | 0 | 1 |
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
                  -------            -------
Taking x="good riddles"; y="hard";

                  -------            -------
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
             5.  | 1 |   |      6.  | 1 | 0 |
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
                  -------            -------
                  -------            -------
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
             7.  | 0 | 0 |      8.  | 0 |   |
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
                  -------            -------
[See pp. 61, 2]
Taking x="lobster"; y="selfish";
                  -------            -------
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
             9.  |   | 1 |     10.  | 0 |   |
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
                  -------            -------
                  -------            -------
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
            11.  | 0 | 1 |     12.  | 1 | 1 |
                 |   |   |          |   |   |
                  -------            -------

                         |     |
                         x     |
                         |     |
                         |     |
                         x'    |
                         |     |
Taking y="healthy people"; x="happy";
            ---          ---          ---          ---
           | 0 |        |   |        | 1 |        | 0 |
      13.  |---|   14.  |-1-|   15.  |---|   16.  |---|
           | 1 |        |   |        | 1 |        |   |
            ---          ---          ---          ---
[See p. 62]

4. Smaller Diagram.

Propositions to be represented.
                        |     |     |
                        |     x     |
                        |     x'    |
                        |     |     |

1. All y are x.
2. Some y are not-x.
3. No not-x are not-y.
4. Some x are not-y.
5. Some not-y are x.
6. No not-x are y.
7. Some not-x are not-y.
8. All not-x are not-y.
9. Some not-y exist.
10. No not-x exist.
11. Some y are x, and some are not-x.
12. All x are y, and all not-y are not-x.

[See pp. 62, 3]
Taking "nations" as Universe; x="civilised"; y="warlike";
13. No uncivilised nation is warlike.
14. All unwarlike nations are uncivilised.
15. Some nations are unwarlike.
16. All warlike nations are civilised, and all civilised nations are warlike.
17. No nation is uncivilised.
Taking "crocodiles" as Universe; x="hungry"; and y="amiable";
18. All hungry crocodiles are unamiable.
19. No crocodiles are amiable when hungry.
20. Some crocodiles, when not hungry, are amiable; but some are not.
21. No crocodiles are amiable, and some are hungry.
22. All crocodiles, when not hungry, are amiable; and all unamiable crocodiles are hungry.
23. Some hungry crocodiles are amiable, and some that are not hungry are unamiable.
[See pp. 63, 4]

5. Smaller Diagram.

Symbols to be interpreted.

                         |     |     |
                         |     x     |
                         |     x'    |
                         |     |     |

                  -------             -------
                 |   |   |           |   |   |
             1.  |---|---|       2.  |---|---|
                 | 1 |   |           |   | 0 |
                  -------             -------
                  -------             -------
                 |   | 1 |           |   |   |
             3.  |---|---|       4.  |---|---|
                 |   | 0 |           | 0 | 0 |
                  -------             -------
Taking "houses" as Universe; x="built of brick"; and y="two-storied"; interpret
                  -------             -------
                 | 0 |   |           |   |   |
             5.  |---|---|       6.  |---|---|
                 | 0 |   |           |   -   |
                  -------             ---|---
                  -------             -------
                 |   | 0 |           |   |   |
             7.  |---|---|       8.  |---|---|
                 |   |   |           | 0 | 1 |
                  -------             -------
[See p. 65]
Taking "boys" as Universe; x="fat"; and y="active"; interpret
                  -------             -------
                 | 1 | 1 |           |   | 0 |
             9.  |---|---|      10.  |---|---|
                 |   |   |           |   | 1 |
                  -------             -------
                  -------             -------
                 | 0 | 1 |           | 1 |   |
            11.  |---|---|      12.  |---|---|
                 |   | 0 |           | 0 | 1 |
                  -------             -------
Taking "cats" as Universe; x="green-eyed"; and y="good-tempered"; interpret
                  -------             -------
                 | 0 | 0 |           |   | 1 |
            13.  |---|---|      14.  |---|---|
                 |   | 0 |           | 1 |   |
                  -------             -------
                  -------             -------
                 | 1 |   |           | 0 | 1 |
            15.  |---|---|      16.  |---|---|
                 |   | 0 |           | 1 | 0 |
                  -------             -------
[See pp. 65, 6]

6. Larger Diagram.

Propositions to be represented.

                        |     |     |
                        |   --x--   |
                        |  |  |  |  |
                        |  |  |  |  |
                        |   --x'-   |
                        |     |     |

1. No x are m.
2. Some y are m'.
3. All m are x'.
4. No m' are y'.
5. No m are x; All y are m.
6. Some x are m; No y are m.
7. All m are x'; No m are y.
8. No x' are m; No y' are m'.
[See pp. 67,8]
Taking "rabbits" as Universe; m="greedy"; x="old"; and y="black"; represent
9. No old rabbits are greedy.
10. Some not-greedy rabbits are black.
11. All white rabbits are free from greediness.
12. All greedy rabbits are young.
13. No old rabbits are greedy; All black rabbits are greedy.
14. All rabbits, that are not greedy, are black; No old rabbits are free from greediness.
Taking "birds" as Universe; m="that sing loud"; x="well-fed"; and y="happy"; represent
15. All well-fed birds sing loud; No birds, that sing loud, are unhappy.
16. All birds, that do not sing loud, are unhappy; No well-fed birds fail to sing loud.
Taking "persons" as Universe; m="in the house"; x="John"; and y="having a tooth-ache"; represent
17. John is in the house; Everybody in the house is suffering from tooth-ache.
18. There is no one in the house but John; Nobody, out of the house, has a tooth-ache.
[See pp. 68-70]
Taking "persons" as Universe; m="I"; x="that has taken a walk"; y="that feels better"; represent
19. I have been out for a walk; I feel much better.
Choosing your own 'Universe' &c., represent
20. I sent him to bring me a kitten; He brought me a kettle by mistake.

[See pp. 70, 1]

7. Both Diagrams to be employed.

               |     |     |      -----------
               |   --x--   |     |     |     |
               |  |  |  |  |     |     x     |
               |--y--m--y'-|     |--y--|--y'-|
               |  |  |  |  |     |     x'    |
               |   --x'-   |     |     |     |
               |     |     |      -----------

N.B. In each Question, a small Diagram should be drawn, for x and y only, and marked in accordance with the given large Diagram: and then as many Propositions as possible, for x and y, should be read off from this small Diagram.

               -----------              -----------
              |0    |     |            |     |     |
              |   --|--   |            |   --|--   |
              |  |0 | 0|  |            |  |0 | 1|  |
          1.  |--|--|--|--|        2.  |--|--|--|--|
              |  |1 |  |  |            |  |0 |  |  |
              |   --|--   |            |   --|--   |
              |0    |     |            |     |     |
               -----------              -----------
[See p. 72]
               -----------              -----------
              |     |     |            |     |    0|
              |   --|--   |            |   --|--   |
              |  |0 | 0|  |            |  |  |  |  |
          3.  |--|--|--|--|        4.  |--|--|--|--|
              |  |1 | 0|  |            |  |0 |  |  |
              |   --|--   |            |   --|--   |
              |     |     |            |     |    0|
               -----------              -----------

Mark, in a large Diagram, the following pairs of Propositions from the preceding Section: then mark a small Diagram in accordance with it, &c.
     5.  No. 13. [see p. 49]    9.  No. 17.

     6.  No. 14.               10.  No. 18.

     7.  No. 15.               11.  No. 19. [see p. 50]

     8.  No. 16.               12.  No. 20.

Mark, on a large Diagram, the following Pairs of Propositions: then mark a small Diagram, &c. These are, in fact, Pairs of PREMISSES for Syllogisms: and the results, read off from the small Diagram, are the CONCLUSIONS.
13. No exciting books suit feverish patients; Unexciting books make one drowsy.
14. Some, who deserve the fair, get their deserts; None but the brave deserve the fair.
15. No children are patient; No impatient person can sit still.
[See pp. 72-5]
16. All pigs are fat; No skeletons are fat.
17. No monkeys are soldiers; All monkeys are mischievous.
18. None of my cousins are just; No judges are unjust.
19. Some days are rainy; Rainy days are tiresome.
20. All medicine is nasty; Senna is a medicine.
21. Some Jews are rich; All Patagonians are Gentiles.
22. All teetotalers like sugar; No nightingale drinks wine.
23. No muffins are wholesome; All buns are unwholesome.
24. No fat creatures run well; Some greyhounds run well.
25. All soldiers march; Some youths are not soldiers.
26. Sugar is sweet; Salt is not sweet.
27. Some eggs are hard-boiled; No eggs are uncrackable.
28. There are no Jews in the house; There are no Gentiles in the garden.
[See pp. 75-82]
29. All battles are noisy; What makes no noise may escape notice.
30. No Jews are mad; All Rabbis are Jews.
31. There are no fish that cannot swim; Some skates are fish.
32. All passionate people are unreasonable; Some orators are passionate.

[See pp. 82-84]

luni, 6 aprilie 2015

GOING AMOK BY AMOC ......impact of AMOC on Arctic Sea Ice and Atmosphere Hea t Transport into the Arctic Rong Zhang, GFDL/NOAA, Princeton, NJ, USA, Rong.Zhang@Noaa.Gov The observed decline trend in September Arctic sea ice extent (SIE) since 1979 has often been attributed in large part to the increase in greenhouse gases . The observed decline trend and future projections of ice - f ree summer bring up the potential for trans - Arctic shipping in the near future . However , the detail mechanisms causing the low frequency variability of su mmer Arctic SIE is still unclear. T he most rapid observed decline actually occurred during the recent hiatus in global warming , and CMIP5 multi - model ensemble mean response to changes in radiative forcings exhibit much less decline trend in September Arcti c SIE, but stronger warming trend in global mean surface temperature than that observed during this hiatus period . In this study, it is shown that AMOC and the associated poleward Atlantic heat transport have played a significant role in the low frequency variability of summer Arctic SIE using the GFDL couple d climate model . At low frequency the March Barents Sea SIE anomaly is dominated by anti - correlated Atlantic inflow anomaly, thus is also significantly correlated with September Arctic SIE a nomaly. The observed March Barents Sea SIE has a very similar normalized decline trends as the observed September Arcti c SIE from 1979 to 2013, consistent with an increasing trend in Atlantic inflow and the multidecadal variability of AMOC implied by its f ingerprints over the same period . This study estimated that a positive trend in the Atlantic inflow have contributed a substantial portion o f the obser ved summer Arctic sea ice extent decline trend since 1979 . The results also provide a clue of why most CM IP underestimate the observed summer Arctic SIE decline in recent decades which might have been substantially affected by internal variability. If the AMOC and the associated Atlantic heat transport into the Arctic were to weaken in the near future, then t here would be a slowdown in the decline trend of September Arctic SIE, and we may not have ice - free Arctic summer that soon in a few decades. This plausible scenario with enormous social and economical impacts cannot be ignored. This study also shows that a t low frequency , changes in poleward atmosphere heat transport across the entire Arctic Circle are compensating to and dominated by AMOC induced Atlantic heat transport anomalies into the Arctic, hence a stronger AMOC and associated enhanced Atlantic hea t transport into the Arctic ocean leads to both reduced summer Arctic SIE and reduced poleward atmosphere heat transport into the Arctic. Most of the anomalous heat transported into the Arctic region by the Atlantic Ocean is released into the atmosphere, t hen transported southward out of the Arctic region by the anomalous atmosphere heat transport. Previous studies attribute the observed changes in the atmosphere circulation pattern and eddy heat transport in recent decades to the observed Arctic sea ice de cline. However, i f the recent observed Arctic sea ice decline since 1979 is also accompanied by strengthened AMOC and enhanced Atlantic Ocean heat transport into the Arctic Ocean, then changes in the atmosphere circulation pattern and eddy heat transport m ight have been dominated by the response to enhanced poleward Atlantic Ocean heat transport, not dominated by Arctic sea ice decline


POSITION 69 OR SO of the pdf.

 It is established that permafrost prevents
the migration of methane from deep-seated
hydrocarbon collectors into the upper
permafrost and to the surface [Skorobogatov
et al, 1998; Rivkina et al, 2006]. Concentration
of methane in frozen Quaternary deposits
in the Arctic depends on the age, origin
and lithology of the permafrost. The gas
and gas-hydrate accumulations are localized
in the organic-rich horizons [Rivkina and
Gilichinsky, 1996; Rivkina et al., 2006].
The authors’ main hypothesis for the crater’s
formation involves the decay of relict gashydrate
inclusions, the release of gas out of
initially frozen deposits enclosing cryopegs
and tabular ground ice. This assumption
is based on the known cryolithology and
geochemistry of permafrost in the region,
with most of the studies performed in
the Bovanenkovo gas field investigations
[Streletskaya and Leibman, 2003]. The
Bovanenkovo studies revealed substantial
gas concentrations [Chuvilin, 2007; Yakushev,
2009], which are blocked by the permafrost
[Rivkina et al., 2006; Gilichinsky et al., 1997].
The possibility of the release of the gas
from the collectors near the surface is
shown by methane and hydrogen sulfide
effusion under the Barents and Kara seas
from 70 to 130 m beneath the sea floor
[Rokos, 2009]. Boreholes at Bovanenkovo gas
field [Chuvilin, 2007] revealed various gas
manifestations, such as emission out of the
borehole and high content in the samples,
in the depth interval 20 to 130 m. Most of
the gas was contained in ice-bearing clays
[Yakushev, 2009]. These clays also enclosed
tabular ground ice, cryopegs and some voids
filled with low-density ice. The maximum gas
emission was 14,000 m3/day [Bondarev et
al., 2008]. F. Are (1998) also suggests that gas
accumulates in voids within the permafrost.
Studies of gas bubbles in tabular ground
ice of the Kara sea region have shown
concentrations of methane exceeding that
of the atmosphere by an order of magnitude
[Lein et al., 2003; Leibman et al., 2003;
Streletskaya et al., 2014; Vanshtein et al.,
2003]. Analysis of δC13(CH4) in the upper
layers of permafrost in Bovanenkovo area
returns results around – 70 ‰, indicating
a biochemical origin of this gas in organic
matter in the permafrost. [Bondarev et al.,
2008]. The isotopic composition is within the
same range as in tabular ground ice bubbles
[Lein et al., 2003; Vanshtein et al., 2003;
Cardyn et al., 2007; Streletskaya et al., 2014].
Methane concentration in modern marine
sediments may exceed 1 ml/l in the Arctic
seas, [Mironyuk and Otto, 2014] while even
more than 0.1 ml/l is considered a high
concentration [Hovland et al., 2002]. The
methane concentration measured in the
frozen deposits of coastal exposures on the
Yamal can reach 1.7 ml/kg and in tabular
ground ice even more, as much as 2.2 ml/kg
[Streletskaya et al., 2014].
The release of this gas could be triggered
by changes in ground temperature.
Ground temperature changes result from
fluctuations in both air temperature and
snow accumulation. Warmer air can trigger
the rapid changes on the surface, thaw
ground ice bodies and create thermal
denudation landforms (thermocirques)
and thermokarst lakes. Probably, the new
features found in 2014 result from the same
rise of air temperature, but presenting a new
mechanism of formation: gas release in the
Thus the origin of the Yamal crater
hypothesized in this paper is based on the
analysis of (a) existing features resulting
from gas-release processes in the Kara sea
region as analogues of the observed onshore
landform, (b) climate fluctuations that
could have caused changes in thermal state
of permafrost, and (c) comparison to other
landforms connected to tabular ground
ice, the salinity of the deposits, and the
concentration of organic matter.
The central part of the Yamal Peninsula is
limited by the Yuribei River in the south
and the Nadui-Yakha River in the north,
including areas of active gas extraction and
transportation. The region is in the zone of
continuous permafrost at least 300 m thick,
with high tabular ground ice content. In
the 2000s, noTable fluctuations of various
climatic parameters have been observed
(Table 1).
The summer of 2012 and the preceding
winter of 2011–2012 were the warmest
since 2006 (Table 1). Summer precipitation
in 2012 was close to the maximum level for
this period, though precipitation during the
preceding winter was at a medium level.
The crater is located in the Tundra bioclimatic
zone, a subzone of typical tundra, about
17 km west of the Mordy-Yakha River and
about 11 km south of Halev-To Lake (69°58’N
and 68°22’E). Rolling hills with altitude up to
52 m have gentle slopes descending to small
ravines and lakes. The slopes are densely
vegetated by willow shrubs up to 1.5 m high.
Cryogenic landslides have disturbed the lake
shores (Fig. 1). The crater is located on a small
hill about 34 m above sea level.
The crater area is within the zone of
continuous permafrost. The average
ground temperature may be as low as –6
°С, and the active layer is up to 1 m deep.
The geological section is represented by
silty-clayey deposits, rich in ice and organic
matter, bearing several layers of tabular
ground ice several meters thick (Ananieva,
1997, Fig. 2).
Table 1. Main climatic controls of the thermal state of permafrost according
to weather station Marre-Sale records (

The date of
the crater’s formation is estimated to have
been in the late fall of 2013; (5) The high
concentration of methane in the hole, which
decreases in the vicinity of the hole and is
negligible far from the hole, indicates the role
of methane in the formation of the crater;

luni, 23 martie 2015


 Does not seem to have slowed down any.  Click to animate.
Lets not forget the facts, see what I read in the newspaper today:

* jakobshavn canal.PNG (886.7 kB, 526x700 - viewed 172 times.)
Here it is:

* Landsat 2015-02-21-vs-sep28-2014.jpg (147.22 kB, 690x752 - viewed 18 times.)
Believe it or not! Massive calving seen at the southern branch of Jakobshavn Isbræ
together with this animation created using images from the Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager:
We’ve just grabbed this Sentinel-1A synthetic aperture radar image from February 15th 2015 via Polarview, which appears to suggest that the calving took place before 20:38 UTC on that date:
Here’s a Sentinel-1A image via “nukefix” at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, which confirms that the calving took place on or before February 16th:
This is a before/after animation from “A-Team” on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, using 15m resolution Landsat images:
Finally, for the moment at least, Espen Olsen provides an illustration of the retreat of the calving face of Jakobshavn Isbræ since 1851:
This most recent event does not bring the calving face further east than the position in summer 2014. However the sun’s rays are only just returning to that part of the planet, and the next one may well do so.
[Edit - 24/02/2015]
We’ve phoned DMI and NSIDC as well, but Jason Box who is a Professor at the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland has been the first to respond with an opinion about how unusual this event is:
It’s an interesting finding. In the attached prepared by Karina Hansen you will see a light yellow polygon illustrating the end of melt season 2014 ice. Jakobshavn front position retreated from the Feb 2014 (pink line) and Feb 2015 (green line) positions. The Feb 2014 and Feb 2015 positions are roughly the same with 2014 Feb being further retreated than Feb 2015:
A cautious response: even if this calving were abnormal, we will likely see an advance in the next weeks that will fill the void. Why?
A) This glacier flows fast, and
B) Now with less flow resistance there will likely be an acceleration making the void filling happen even faster.
Here are annual end of melt season area changes measured by These are being updated. I will ask Karina Hansen today to update for 2014 and 2015. We could have that result in a few hours.

luni, 9 martie 2015

Loose ICE (University of Rhode Island) "Cracks in the Cryosphere: How Changes in Sea Ice Can Upset the Ocean Carbon Cycle (Universite Libre de ICE IV "The Cryosphere Between the Cracks AND THE CRACKPOTS: Does It Matter TO THE MARCHING MORONS GOING UP A DIME BIGGEST YEAR IN NASDAQ IN YEARS THE XXI CENTURY FOX IS JUST FINE AND GOING TO GO FINER OR THINNER SOMETHING LIKE THIS OR LIKE THAT TIT FOR TAT

Arctic sea ice extent continues to track well below average, but it is still unclear whether March will see an increase in ice, or establish a record low maximum. Regionally, Arctic ice extent is especially low in the Sea of Okhotsk and the Bering Sea. In the Antarctic, sea ice shrank to the fourth highest minimum in the satellite record.

Overview of conditions

Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for February 2015
Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for February 2015 was 14.41 million square kilometers (5.56 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1981 to 2010 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data.About the data

Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center
High-resolution image
Arctic sea ice extent in February averaged 14.41 million square kilometers (5.56 million square miles). This is the third lowest February ice extent in the satellite record. It is 940,000 square kilometers (362,900 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 long-term average of 15.35 million square kilometers (5.93 million square miles). It is also 50,000 square kilometers (19,300 square miles) above the record low for the month observed in 2005.
With the Arctic Ocean completely ice covered, the remaining areas of potential new ice growth are limited to the margins of the pack in the northern Pacific and northern Atlantic. Sea ice extent is below average across the entire sea ice margin, most prominently along the Pacific sectors. A small region of above-average ice extent is located near Newfoundland and the Canadian Maritime Provinces.
The Arctic maximum is expected to occur in the next two or three weeks. Previous years have seen a surge in Arctic ice extent during March (e.g., in 2012, 2014). However, if the current pattern of below-average extent continues, Arctic sea ice extent may set a new lowest winter